2/12/2013

What's At Stake (Feb. 12)

This is another feature that I would like to introduce every Game Day to do exactly what the title says: show what's at stake in every game concerning City League and AV-CTL teams.

It appears as if Eisenhower is the place to be tonight, as Tuesday's premier game will be the 15-1 Tigers hosting another ranked Class 5A team in Andover (12-4). But that's not the only game I'll be breaking down for you, as you can click the jump and find out what each game means for every team in the City League and all four of the AV-CTL's.

Andover (12-4, 6-3 AV-CTL Div. 2) @ Eisenhower (15-1, 8-0 AV-CTL Div. 2)
An Andover win would: Keep the league title open until the last game of the season, more than likely. The best the Trojans can hope for is a three-way tie with Eisenhower and Andover Central, which would be a near miracle, so this game would be more about the validation than the impact in the standings. It would also keep Andover in position for the No. 2 seed in sub-state, but still needing a Central slip-up to avoid the tiebreaker, or else the Trojans could be in a coin flip with Kapaun for the No. 3 and 4 seeds. Andover is holding teams to an average of 45.8 points on the road, which could be helpful in winning its first game over a quality opponent this season.
An Eisenhower win would: Clinch the No. 1 seed in a very competitive sub-state because of its tiebreaker over Andover Central. It would also all but wrap up Eisenhower's first ever league title (I'm sorry, but there's no way the Tigers lose three straight to Valley Center, Maize South and Goddard). Eisenhower would extend its winning streak to 12 games, keep its home record (5-0) perfect and give the Tigers their fifth win over a quality team this season. If the Tigers can win out and advance to the state tournament, they will be, at worst, in a coin flip with Lansing for the No. 2 and No. 3 seed.

Click the jump to read about the rest of Friday's slate of games.

THE CITY LEAGUE

East (10-7, 8-5 CL) @ West (8-8, 6-6 CL)
An East win would: Be a step forward in the right direction after losing three straight last week and plummeting out of the league title race and into third place. East has actually been better on the road this season (6-2, outscoring teams by average of 11.9 points) and needs a win to complete the season sweep over a surging West team. A win and a Carroll loss would likely ensure East of at least third place in the City. It is also needed for sub-state seeding, as East is tied with Washburn Rural and Manhattan in the loss column at seven for the No. 2 seed.
A West win would: Turn the spotlight solely on the Pioneers in the City League, as they would have won 8 of their last 10 games since Jan. 11. It would extend the winning streak to four games, bring East into a tie in the loss column in the City League standings and open up the possibilities of finishing as high as third. Although West is likely locked into either the No. 5 or 6 seed in its sub-state (it's currently in a battle with Carroll), a win over a quality team like East could not be ignored and bring West onto the scene as a serious contender to make it to the Class 5A state tournament, even in the most competitive sub-state.

Southeast (7-9, 5-7 CL) @ Bishop Carroll (8-8, 6-6 CL)
A Southeast win would: End a disappointing 3-game losing streak, in which the Buffaloes have lost by a combined three points in regulation and one in overtime. Southeast is reeling a bit and this would complete the season sweep over Bishop Carroll and keep its hopes of a .500 season alive. The Buffaloes are part of the logjam in the middle of the City League standings, so any win will help its seeding there. The Buffaloes also need to keep pace in their sub-state, as they have fallen to the No. 6 seed - a game back from Heights in 5th and two games back from three teams. A win is a necessity to stay alive for hosting a first round game.
A Bishop Carroll win would: Get back to the way the Eagles were playing before Saturday's loss to Kapaun, in which they won four straight games. Carroll would stay alive to finish as high as second in the City, although third or fourth would be more likely. It would push Carroll's home record (3-3) above .500 and also be crucial for sub-state seeding, as it is currently in a battle with West (8-8) for the No. 5 seed.

Northwest (7-9, 5-7 CL) @ Heights (8-8, 5-7 CL)
A Northwest win would: Count as its fourth road win of the season, an impressive mark. The Grizzlies could move forward in the logjam that is the middle of the City League standings and split the season series with Heights. After logging their two highest point totals of the season in wins over West and South, the Grizzlies had a relapse in a loss against East and need to return to their previous form to beat Heights on the road. The Grizzlies also can keep pace in their sub-state, in which they are two games from moving up to as high as the No. 3 seed and falling to as low as the No. 6 seed.
A Heights win would: Welcome the Falcons back into the winning record club and likely ensure they finish with at least an even record on the season. Heights would push Northwest down and push itself up through the clutter of the middle of the City League and complete the season sweep of Northwest as well as win back-to-back games. Heights is also in the heat of a very competitive sub-state race where it could still finish as high as No. 2 if it keeps winning (Right now Heights sits in 5th, but only 1.5 games back from East for No. 2 and a game ahead of Southeast in 6th).

South (2-15, 0-13 CL) @ North (15-2, 12-1 CL)
A South win would: Make the world explode. Well, not really, but it might. The Titans are already locked into a last-place finish in the City League, but it still is fighting to avoid North in the 1st round of sub-state with 2-14 Campus. I'm not sure the Titans can do any better than hope for a coin toss with their last three games at North, vs. Heights then at East.
A North win would: Clinch an outright City League championship, its first in 39 seasons. The Redskins enter as the overwhelming favorites to complete the season sweep after thumping South on the road by 47 points. The Redskins could also clinch the No. 1 seed in its sub-state with a victory, as well. So there is something at stake for North, which if it wins out, would either be in a coin flip for the No. 2 seed with SM East or the No. 3 seed at worst.

THE AV-CTL DIVISION I

Hutchinson (8-8, 6-3 AV-CTL Div. 1) @ Derby (14-3, 8-1 AV-CTL Div. 1)
A Hutchinson win would: Re-open the race for the league title, although Hutchinson would still need Derby to slip up one more time to even hope for a share of the title. The Salthawks would pick up their best win of the season and their third win on the road this season. Hutchinson would win its fifth game in its last six and move above .500 for the first time since Dec. 11 when it was 2-1. Hutchinson would stay in the race for the No. 3 seed in the sub-state, which is crucial in avoiding North, as it is a game back from 9-7 Dodge City.
A Derby win would: Be a huge step in wrapping up its second consecutive league title under Brett Flory. The Panthers would still only be up one game on Salina Central (depending on outcome of its game with Salina South), but they would have defeated their three biggest challengers in Salina Central, Hutchinson and Maize with only Newton and Salina South left in their way. Derby has already clinched the top seed in its sub-state, so it has nothing to worry about except a potential seeding at the state tournament. Right now if the Panthers win out they would be looking at a No. 4 seed.

Salina South (6-10, 3-5 AV-CTL Div. 1) vs. Salina Central (10-6, 6-2 AV-CTL Div. 1) in Bicentennial Center
A Salina South win would: Be a statement victory over its rivals that constantly overshadow its program. The Cougars may not be likely to finish with their desired .500 season, but a win like this could be a huge confidence-booster heading into the final weeks of the season. The Cougars could keep their hopes of a fourth place finish in league alive with a game at Maize on Friday to decide that. But more importantly, South is still in a very good position to host a first round sub-state game as it is in a battle with Valley Center (6-10) for the No. 4 seed. It's also only a game back from Maize South and only ahead of Liberal and Great Bend by 1.5 games.
A Salina Central win would: Keep the pressure on Derby and bring it into a tie if Derby loses to Hutchinson. The Mustangs are also looking to complete the season sweep over their rivals. A win here would also lock up Central's seventh straight winning season under Doug Finch. The Mustangs are also looking to keep the pressure on Hays (11-5) to keep winning since they now have the tie-breaker, which could be the difference if the teams tie for the No. 1 seed in the sub-state.

Newton (4-12, 2-6 AV-CTL Div. 1) @ Campus (2-14, 0-9 AV-CTL Div. 1)
A Newton win would: End a 6-game losing streak in probably the final game Newton will be favored to win. The Railers could move up to a tie with Salina South for 5th place, although they don't have the tiebreaker there. This would complete the season sweep of Campus, a team the Railers beat by 55 points in December. The Railers also are needing a win to move up in sub-state, as they are currently in the last spot but are only two games away from the No. 4 seed.
A Campus win would: Avenge that 55-point thumping it took back in December at Newton's place and give coach Russell Herman his first league win and third on the season. This is probably the best shot Campus has at winning the rest of the season, as it will be looking to end a 4-game losing streak. The Colts are likely going to finish last in the league, unless they can win another and Newton loses out. But it's also important for Campus to avoid North in the first round of sub-state and capture the No. 7 seed, which it is currently tied for with South (2-15) in the win column.

Maize (5-11) @ Goddard (3-13)
A Maize win would: Give it bragging rights over its rivals from Goddard and give the Eagles their fourth win in the last five games. This isn't a league game, so it doesn't matter in the league standings but this would be a nice boost for Maize and would be the first win outside of league play for the Eagles. It would also likely clinch it receiving no worse than the No. 6 seed in sub-state and keep it vaguely in the conversation for moving up, although it is 2 games back from Northwest.
A Goddard win would: Similarly give the Lions bragging rights over their rivals from Maize, but also give the Lions a crucial win to possibly break the tie with Ark City for the No. 7 seed and a ticket to avoid Eisenhower in the first round of sub-state. But at this point, Goddard just needs some wins under its belt as this is probably the first of two remaining good chances at winning a game. Goddard is either getting the No. 7 or No. 8 seed, so that's what it's playing for.

THE AV-CTL DIVISION II

Andover Central (13-4, 7-2 AV-CTL Div. 2) @ Maize South (7-9, 1-7 AV-CTL Div. 2)
An Andover Central win would: Keep it within arm's length of Eisenhower, although if the Tigers keep winning it won't matter. It's appearing likely the Jaguars will have to settle for second place in league, which a win here would all but solidify if Andover loses to Eisenhower. If that occurs, Central would also be all alone in second place in the sub-state standings and avoid getting a tricky first-round game against either West or Carroll. So a win here is actually very important for the path to state.
A Maize South win would: Be the signature win of the season for the Mavericks. It would also break this statistical oddity where Maize South has only won one game in league play yet stands at 7-9 on the season. So the Mavericks don't have much to play for in league, but they do when it comes to sub-state. They are in a particularly soft sub-state and currently sit as the No. 3 seed with a one game lead over Salina South and Valley Center. Wins might be sparse as the three upcoming games are against ranked 5A teams (Andover Central, Andover and at Eisenhower), although Maize South is playing well at home this season.

Ark City (3-13, 1-8 AV-CTL Div. 2) @ Valley Center (6-10, 4-4 AV-CTL Div. 2)
An Ark City win would: Give the Bulldogs back-to-back wins for the first time all season and turn some heads in the league after getting beat down by 15+ points in the first round of games. Ark City could potentially move out of the cellar in the league standings past Maize South, which would be a victory, and also possibly out of the last seed in sub-state over Goddard (3-13), who the Bulldogs are currently battling against for the No. 7 seed. Remember, Ark City only lost by three the first time these teams played.
A Valley Center win would: Prove it is the best purple-and-yellow team on the court, complete the season sweep of Ark City and push the Hornets' league record to 5-4 on the season and likely a 0.5 game back from Andover for 3rd place with a game against Andover still coming up. Valley Center is also in a heated battle for a possible No. 3 seed in sub-state and with Maize South (7-9) and Salina South (6-10) playing underdogs, the Hornets could sneak up into the third slot with a win.

Maize (5-11) @ Goddard (3-13)
A Maize win would: Give it bragging rights over its rivals from Goddard and give the Eagles their fourth win in the last five games. This isn't a league game, so it doesn't matter in the league standings but this would be a nice boost for Maize and would be the first win outside of league play for the Eagles. It would also likely clinch it receiving no worse than the No. 6 seed in sub-state and keep it vaguely in the conversation for moving up, although it is 2 games back from Northwest.
A Goddard win would: Similarly give the Lions bragging rights over their rivals from Maize, but also give the Lions a crucial win to possibly break the tie with Ark City for the No. 7 seed and a ticket to avoid Eisenhower in the first round of sub-state. But at this point, Goddard just needs some wins under its belt as this is probably the first of two remaining good chances at winning a game. Goddard is either getting the No. 7 or No. 8 seed, so that's what it's playing for.

THE AV-CTL DIVISION III

Mulvane (11-5, 4-2 AV-CTL Div. 3) @ McPherson (14-2, 6-0 AV-CTL Div. 3)
A Mulvane win would: Shock not just the league, but the area and the state. The Wildcats are looking for revenge for a 26-point thumping they took at home against McPherson in the first round. This would open up the league race, although McPherson would still have to slip up one more time. More importantly, Mulvane would legitimize itself as a contender in 4A with a win like this. It also could be important in sub-state because it is in a 3-way battle with Clearwater (12-4) and Trinity Academy (12-5) for the No. 1 seed and an unexpected win like this could be huge.
A McPherson win would: Keep the engine humming after that Circle loss. The Bullpups have responded with three of their better wins of the season and this would make it four in a row. McPherson would virtually wrap up yet another league title and it would be well on its way to a perfect league record. The Bullpups also need a win to keep up in their sub-state because they are in a battle with Hesston (14-2) for the No. 1 seed in sub-state and a coin flip for the top spot.

El Dorado (11-5, 4-2 AV-CTL Div. 3) @ Buhler (3-13, 1-5 AV-CTL Div. 3)
An El Dorado win would: Squash concerns that El Dorado can't win on the road, where it is 2-3 this season. A win would complete the season sweep of Buhler and get the Wildcats back on track after losing by 24 against McPherson last week. And if Mulvane loses against McPherson, El Dorado would take back control of sole possession of second place in league. But El Dorado also needs a victory to keep pace in a very competitive sub-state, as it is currently No. 4 with an 11-5 record. The Wildcats are only a game back from the team in second, so the more wins the higher the odds they can move up although they have virtually wrapped up a home game in the first round.
A Buhler win would: Officially make Buhler a threat in the second round of the season, as it has won back-to-back games after upsetting Winfield last Friday. The Crusaders are looking for revenge for a 1-point loss on the road early in the season and possibly move out of the cellar of the league standings. Buhler would also likely avoid the No. 8 seed with another unexpected win like this in sub-state and keep it in the conversation for moving up as high as the No. 5 seed because Chapman (5-12) and Smoky Valley (5-12) are only 1.5 games ahead.

Winfield (9-7, 2-4 AV-CTL Div. 3) @ Rose Hill (6-10, 1-5 AV-CTL Div. 3)
A Winfield win would: Serve as a bounce-back from last week's head-scratching loss at Buhler and give Winfield double-digit wins on the season. The Vikings would pretty much wrap up 4th place in the division, but more importantly would grab another win for sub-state seeding. Winfield is in a head-to-head battle with Collegiate (9-7) to host a first round game as a No. 4 seed, so a win here would apply pressure on the Spartans to keep winning. The Vikings need to take advantage here, as their final three games (Mulvane, @El Dorado, McPherson) will likely be played as the underdog.
A Rose Hill win would: Be a solid league win, only its second of the season, and move the Rockets a win closer to .500. Although that's unlikely with El Dorado and a road trip to McPherson still left, Rose Hill could build some positive momentum and finish as high as fourth in the league standings. Rose Hill is also in a position to battle for sub-state seeding, as it is currently the No. 7 seed and is a game back from Augusta from moving up and a game up on Wellington for the last spot.

THE AV-CTL DIVISION IV

Augusta (7-9, 3-3 AV-CTL Div. IV) @ Andale (14-2, 6-0 AV-CTL Div. IV)
An Augusta win would: Spark a celebration in Clearwater, as this is the stumble it needs to re-open the league race that Andale has a complete grip on. The Orioles would get their signature win of the season and all of a sudden have a chance to finish with, at worst, a .500 record. The Orioles play the top three teams in the league, all on the road, so stealing any one of those would be an accomplishment. Augusta is also in the midst of a sub-state battle for seeding. A win would keep a slim margin of hope alive for a No. 5 seed, while a loss would open them up to be passed at No. 6 because they're only a game up on Rose Hill and two on Wellington.
An Andale win would: Be one step closer to locking up the league title. While Augusta should be taken seriously, the Indians won't have their two biggest tests until Clearwater and a road trip to Collegiate to finish the season. Still, this would be nice and force Clearwater to keep winning. The Indians have already wrapped up the No. 1 seed in a very bad sub-state, but they have to keep winning to set themselves up for a good seed at the Class 4A state tournament, which they'll be the overwhelming favorite to reach from that sub-state. A 23-2 record would likely give Andale a top 4 seed.

Wellington (5-11, 1-5 AV-CTL Div. IV) @ Collegiate (9-7, 3-3 AV-CTL Div. IV)
A Wellington win would: Be a huge upset and give the Crusaders their finest win on the season and likely escape the cellar of the league standings. Wellington lost by 20 in the first round, so it's looking for revenge on the road, where it has actually played better this season. Wellington is also looking to escape the No. 8 seed in sub-state and is only a game back from Rose Hill for 7th and two back from Augusta for 6th.
A Collegiate win would: Be just what the Spartans need. They just need to feel back-to-back wins again. The Spartans haven't won two in a row since the first game back from holiday break on Jan. 4. Collegiate would likely move into 3rd place in the league standings, barring a miracle upset from Augusta over Andale. The Spartans would also gain a valuable win in sub-state, as they would beat a sub-state opponent and keep pace with Winfield (9-7) for the No. 4 seed and give it an outside chance of moving up to as high as second.

Clearwater (12-4, 4-2 AV-CTL Div. IV) @ Circle (3-13, 1-5 AV-CTL Div. IV)
A Clearwater win would: Appear to be a gimme, but this is a tricky road test against a Circle team that has already pulled off a monster upset over McPherson at home. The Indians are also looking for payback on a 50-44 loss to Circle at home, a game that likely will cost them a chance at sharing the league title with Andale. Clearwater would still stay alive in the league title race, albeit very distantly, and maintain its position atop the sub-state standings with another win as it has a 1-game lead on Trinity and Mulvane. The Indians are also a perfect 4-0 on the road so far this season.
A Circle win would: Complete the season sweep over the Indians and give Circle yet another improbable victory. Despite their 3-13 record, I don't think this is a very rewarding prize for a No. 1 or No. 2 seed come sub-state time. Circle has shown its potential for the upset and this one would be another shocker. Circle could escape the bottom of the league standings and also the sub-state in one fell swoop. The T-Birds are in a battle with Parsons for avoiding the last seed, so an unexpected win here could go a long way in avoiding the top team in the sub-state the first round.

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