2/25/2013

The Final Bubble

I hope everyone enjoyed the release of my fictional 64-team bracket that was unveiled last night. I thought it could maybe bring on some healthy debate and create a lot of fun "What if"-type of match-ups, and I felt like the Twitter response proved that to be true. It's great to see how many people care of about high school basketball in this state and I was humbled and amused by how much of a response the selections stimulated.

Most of the inquiries I received over the bracket was about why so-and-so was ranked so high or low, and why certain teams with not such great records made it in over teams that finished with 13, 14 and even 15 wins. I wanted to explain what I was looking at and show you how I came to the selections that I did.

So click the jump to figure out the reason for what might be called "snubs" from the tournament.


Here are the teams with winning records or close to .500 records that I considered but did not end up selecting to include in the field. If you do not see your team listed, then it is safe to assume that the double-digit losses is what held them out of the tournament field.

Hutchinson, Independence, KC Harmon, KC Schlagle, Rock Creek, Topeka Seaman and Wichita Trinity

Let's take a look at each of these team's resumes and I will explain why they fell on the wrong side of the bubble.

HUTCHINSON SALTHAWKS
Record: 10 wins, 9 losses
Signature wins: None
Quality wins: None
Good wins: None
Bad losses: None
Record vs. "Solid" Teams: 4-9
Record vs. "Over-Matched" Teams: 6-0
WHY THEY DIDN'T GET IN: All it takes is a glance up at the good win categories. The Salthawks failed to defeat a team with a winning record all season. Hutchinson was 0-8 this season against teams that I rated "average" or better. This season was a case of the Salthawks beating who they were supposed to and coming up just short against the good teams. At some point, you have to win one of those games and that's why Hutchinson was left out.

INDEPENDENCE BULLDOGS
Record: 15 wins, 5 losses
Signature wins: None
Quality wins: None
Good wins: #Coffeyville, 69-56, Dec. 7; Labette County, 46-39, Feb. 12; Coffeyville, 62-33, Feb. 19.
Bad losses: Fort Scott, 43-49, Jan. 4; @Word of Life, 56-59, Jan. 8.
Record vs. "Solid" Teams: 4-3
Record vs. "Over-Matched" Teams: 11-2
WHY THEY DIDN'T GET IN: The three good wins are nice and so is the winning record against them, but what left the Bulldogs on the wrong side of the bubble is the overall weakness of the schedule and the two bad losses. Independence played 13 of its 20 games against teams I rated as over-matched, which did not stack up well against the teams in the actual field. The eye-opening 29-point thumping it put on Coffeyville at the end of the season gave them consideration, but the overall body of work was not as strong as the teams in the field.

KANSAS CITY HARMON HAWKS
Record: 11 wins, 8 losses
Signature wins: None
Quality wins: None
Good wins: #St. James Academy, 66-61, Jan. 18; #KC Schlagle, 53-50, Jan. 19; Hogan Prep (Mo.), 62-61, Jan. 21; @KC Schlagle, 64-61, Feb. 5.
Bad losses: KC Wyandotte, 52-56, Dec. 14.
Record vs. "Solid" Teams: 5-7
Record vs. "Over-Matched" Teams: 6-1
WHY THEY DIDN'T GET IN: Harmon finished second in Class 5A last season and probably deserved a spot in the tournament, but its resume did not do it justice. The Hawks have four good wins, but lack a quality one. They also dropped a bad one to Wyandotte the last game before the Christmas break. The 5-7 record against solid teams wasn't terrible, but I just didn't see a quality win to convince me Harmon should get in the field.

KANSAS CITY SCHLAGLE STALLIONS
Record: 11 wins, 8 losses
Signature wins: None
Quality wins: None
Good wins: @KC Harmon, 54-47, Jan. 22.
Bad losses: None
Record vs. "Solid" Teams: 3-8
Record vs. "Over-Matched" Teams: 8-0
WHY THEY DIDN'T GET IN: The Stallions proved they could beat the bad teams, but never did show me they could beat the good ones. Schagle was 10-0 against teams I rated average or worse, which caught my eye, but going 1-8 against good teams is what ultimately made me decide Schlagle did not belong.

ROCK CREEK MUSTANGS
Record: 16 wins, 3 losses
Signature wins: None
Quality wins: None
Good wins: Silver Lake, 55-35, Jan. 4.
Bad losses: None
Record vs. "Solid" Teams: 2-3
Record vs. "Over-Matched" Teams: 13-0
WHY THEY DIDN'T GET IN: Strength of schedule. Playing 13 of 19 games against inferior competition will do that to a team and with a mediocre 2-3 record against teams I consider solid, Rock Creek was left out despite an impressive 16-3 record. None of the three losses were against bad teams, but if Rock Creek could have pulled one more of those out then it probably would have got in.

TOPEKA SEAMAN VIKINGS
Record: 9 wins, 11 losses
Signature wins: @Emporia, 65-63, Jan. 4.
Quality wins: None
Good wins: Washburn Rural, 53-46, Jan. 8
Bad losses: None
Record vs. "Solid" Teams: 7-11
Record vs. "Over-Matched" Teams: 2-0
WHY THEY DIDN'T GET IN: Seaman had the best win of any team that was on the bubble and didn't get in with its upset at Emporia in the first game of the new year. The Vikings also had a solid win against Washburn Rural. What got them in trouble with a 5-4 record against teams that I rated just "average." While the seven wins against solid teams was nice and I think Seaman deserved strong consideration, 11 losses is what ended up costing it at the end.

WICHITA TRINITY KNIGHTS
Record: 15 wins, 5 losses
Signature wins: None
Quality wins: None
Good wins: Cheney, 84-73, Jan. 11; Wichita Independent, 63-52, Feb. 19.
Bad losses: None
Record vs. "Solid" Teams: 2-5
Record vs. "Over-Matched" Teams: 13-0
WHY THEY DIDN'T GET IN: As you can see above, the record against solid teams and over-matched teams tell the story. Trinity feasted upon a weak schedule, picking up 13 of its 15 victories over over-matched teams. That is not a negative, but Trinity needed to back up those wins with a better record against good teams. Ultimately, Trinity got the axe because of that 2-5 record against good teams.

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