For Class 4A teams, Tuesday's games carry an added significance. For some reason, KSHSAA has made the cut-off date for its sub-state seeding meeting on Wednesday. Now that doesn't appear to be a problem for most teams in the state, as they play their final game of the season on Tuesday. But in the Ark Valley-Chisholm Trail League, several of the teams are playing games on Thursday. So that can be an advantage or disadvantage, but what it does is only make 19 games relevant for those teams, which shouldn't be the case.
But that debate is for another day, and at Keeper of the Hoops I am dedicated to bringing you everything you need to know for the sub-state seedings this week. I'll take a look at Class 5A and Class 6A teams on Thursday since their final games do get to count toward seeding. But let's break down the area Class 4A teams and show what's at stake in tonight's games.
BUHLER CRUSADERS
Record: 4-14
Tuesday: vs. Mulvane, 11-7
Possible Seeds: #5, #6, #7
Direct Competition: Chapman, 5-14 (vs. Abilene, 16-3); Smoky Valley, 5-14 (@Sterling, 8-11)
A Buhler Win: Likely catapults it into the fifth seed, assuming Chapman and Smoky Valley are unsuccessful in their upset bids. There's not an easy matchup for a lower seed, but drawing Concordia (13-6) the first round is probably the best shot at an upset for Buhler.
A Buhler Loss: Locks it into the seventh seed and the unenviable task of playing Hesston or McPherson on the road in the first round.
How I See It: Buhler has played well lately, aside from the beat down at the hands of McPherson on Friday, but it will still be the underdog when it hosts Mulvane. I don't see any of the three teams - Chapman, Smoky Valley, Buhler - winning on Tuesday, which means Buhler will stay in the No. 7 slot. Although, I will say, Buhler has the best odds at completing an upset.
McPHERSON BULLPUPS
Record: 16-2
Tuesday: vs. Rose Hill, 6-12
Possible Seeds: #1, #2, #3
Direct Competition: Hesston, 17-2 (vs. Pratt, 6-13); Abilene, 16-3 (@Chapman, 5-14)
A McPherson Win: Guarantees a top 2 seed with the exact spot determined by Hesston's result; a Hesston win makes McPherson No. 2, while a Swather loss makes McPherson No. 1. It won't make much of a difference in the first round, but the No. 2 seed will likely meet Abilene, a state-ranked team, in the semifinals instead of the finals.
A McPherson Loss: Likely drops it to the third seed, assuming Abilene wins. If Hesston wins and locks the No. 1 seed, then the difference between No. 2 and No. 3 is meaningless.
How I See It: McPherson looks like it will be a victim of the seeding meeting occurring on Wednesday, which will put it a half-game behind Hesston in the standings. I don't see any of the top three teams losing on Tuesday, so it looks like McPherson will be slotted into the No. 2 seed and face a much more difficult task of playing Abilene and possibly Hesston, both ranked in my 4A poll, to reach the state tournament. The Bullpups will still enter the sub-state as my favorite to win.
CIRCLE THUNDERBIRDS
Record: 3-15
Tuesday: vs. Collegiate, 11-7
Possible Seeds: #7, #8
Direct Competition: Parsons, 3-16 (Off on Tuesday)
A Circle Win: Guarantees the No. 7 seed in the sub-state, a win ahead of Parsons. If Coffeyville defeats Independence and Labette County wins, then the T-Birds would play on the road in the first round against Labette County. If Independence wins, then it would host Circle as the second seed.
A Circle Loss: Drops it into a tie with Parsons for the worst record in the sub-state and a coin flip would ensue to determine the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds. There won't be much of a difference for Circle; it will have to go on the road against one of the best teams in 4A either way..
How I See It: I think Collegiate is regaining its moxie and while Circle can keep it close for awhile, I don't see the T-Birds able to pull off this upset. That means it will go to a coin flip between it and Parsons. Regardless of who they play the first round, the T-Birds will be viewed as major underdogs. While I probably won't pick them for an upset, I do think Circle is one of the most dangerous teams that a first or second seed will play in the first round in Class 4A.
EL DORADO WILDCATS
Record: 12-6
Tuesday: vs. Winfield, 11-7
Possible Seeds: #3, #4
Direct Competition: Labette County, 12-6 (vs. Pittsburg, 9-9)
An El Dorado Win: Would keep it alive for a possible coin flip for the third seed if Labette County stumbles against Pittsburg, which isn't unreasonable. A fourth seed is the worst-case scenario.
An El Dorado Loss: Locks it into the fourth seed and a very tough first-round matchup against Chanute (10-9). A road of going through Chanute, Coffeyville and then maybe Labette County or Independence is an awfully tough one.
How I See It: I think both Labette County and El Dorado will win, which means the Wildcats will have to settle for a fourth seed even with a great 13-win record. But reaching state will require passing one of the toughest roads in all of Class 4A.
AUGUSTA ORIOLES
Record: 7-11
Tuesday: vs. Wellington, 5-13
Possible Seeds: #6
Direct Competition: None
An Augusta Win: Lock it into the sixth seed and get it one step closer to a .500 record, although it will mean nothing for sub-state seeding.
An Augusta Loss: Could bring it into a tie with Rose Hill, but since the Orioles have the head-to-head tiebreaker they will win the No. 6 seed regardless of their result on Tuesday.
How I See It: Augusta has played all three of its possible matchups in the first round - Collegiate, Winfield and Mulvane. The bad thing is that the Orioles have lost to all three and 0-5 against them with no games being in single-digits. So there's not really a good matchup, but the Orioles are a scary team to play in the first round because of its unique style of play and the possibility that they catch fire from three. Personally, I would want to avoid Collegiate this time of the year but Mulvane or Winfield isn't exactly a waltz, either.
CLEARWATER INDIANS
Record: 14-4
Tuesday: @Andale, 16-2
Possible Seeds: #1, #2
Direct Competition: W. Trinity, 14-5 (vs. W. Independent, 15-4)
A Clearwater Win: Would secure the top seed in the sub-state automatically and make the Indians the favorite to come out of this sub-state.
A Clearwater Loss: Takes the control out and Clearwater is at the mercy of the Trinity result. If the Knights win, then Clearwater is second. If the Knights also lose, Clearwater remains No. 1.
How I See It: I think both Clearwater and Trinity play competitive games, but I see both of those teams taking losses on Tuesday. The Indians benefit from playing one less game to this point and would receive the top overall seed in the sub-state and a date with Wellington in the first round. I like Clearwater to advance, but once it hits the semifinals then it will be completely up in the air between the Indians and some combination of Trinity, Winfield, Collegiate and Mulvane.
COLLEGIATE SPARTANS
Record: 11-7
Tuesday: @Circle, 3-15
Possible Seeds: #3, #4, #5
Direct Competition: Mulvane, 11-7 (@Buhler, 4-14); Winfield, 11-7 (@El Dorado, 13-5)
A Collegiate Win: Wouldn't guarantee anything, but it's likely at least one of these three teams will drop one on the road and Collegiate would lock up a top 4 seed. Mulvane owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, but if all three have the same result on Tuesday then a coin flip would ensue between the three.
A Collegiate Loss: Wouldn't lock it into anything, but likely wouldn't help. The same scenario above would apply here.
How I See It: None of these three teams are a for-sure thing on the road and Mulvane and Collegiate each have to take down teams that are very tricky at home. Winfield has the most difficult game and I think El Dorado will win that. I see Mulvane and Collegiate each winning, but the Spartans will have to settle for the No. 4 seed because of the tiebreaker. A road of Winfield, Clearwater and Mulvane or Trinity would be the most difficult this sub-state can offer, but if there is a team that can handle that it would be Collegiate.
MULVANE WILDCATS
Record: 11-7
Tuesday: @Buhler, 4-14
Possible Seeds: #3, #4, #5
Direct Competition: Collegiate, 11-7 (@Circle, 3-15); Winfield, 11-7 (@El Dorado, 13-5)
A Mulvane Win: Guarantees nothing but would do nothing but help its standing. There is too much up in the air with Collegiate and Winfield. If all three teams finish with the same result, then a coin flip would ensue. If Mulvane ties with Collegiate, it has the head-to-head tiebreaker. If Mulvane ties with Winfield, a coin flip would be needed.
A Mulvane Loss: Would have the same principles applied as if it wins. See above.
How I See It: While Buhler is much-improved from the start of the season, I see Mulvane emerging with a victory on the road. I also think Collegiate takes care of Circle on the road, while Winfield will be the lone victim on Tuesday. That means Mulvane will be tied with Collegiate and secure the No. 3 seed based on its head-to-head win. You can thank Zach Haynes for that one. The bottom side of the bracket might actually be an easier draw, as Mulvane would likely have to go through Augusta and Trinity to get to the title opposed to Winfield and Clearwater as the No. 4. I'm leaning heavily toward picking the Wildcats to reach the sub-state finals.
ROSE HILL ROCKETS
Record: 6-12
Tuesday: @McPherson, 16-2
Possible Seeds: #7
Direct Competition: None
A Rose Hill Win: Would be a monster upset, but wouldn't improve its seeding at all in the sub-state.
A Rose Hill Loss: Would have no negative consequences to its sub-state seeding.
How I See It: I don't see Rose Hill winning in McPherson, but that season finale against Buhler is a possible victory. It won't matter for sub-state, but getting a win right before sub-state would be crucial for the team's confidence. Rose Hill is locked into the #7 seed and a likely matchup with Wichita Trinity in the first round. That's not an impossible matchup and Rose Hill has proven it can play with the best in this sub-state by beating Clearwater earlier this month. The Rockets are a dangerous team for a #7 seed.
WELLINGTON CRUSADERS
Record: 5-13
Tuesday: @Augusta, 7-11
Possible Seeds: #8
Direct Competition: None
A Wellington Win: Would snap a 6-game losing streak, but not improve its sub-state seeding because of a head-to-head loss with Rose Hill.
A Wellington Loss: Would have no negative consequences to its sub-state seeding, as it is already locked into the #8 seed.
How I See It: Wellington has two good opportunities for a win to end the season and to snap that losing streak. The Crusaders have had a tough go this season when it has come to league play and it won't get much easier in the first round of sub-state with a likely date with Clearwater, a team that got up to a 26-point lead fairly easily last week. The Crusaders will be looking to play the role of a major spoiler this season.
WINFIELD VIKINGS
Record: 11-7
Tuesday: @El Dorado, 13-5
Possible Seeds: #3, #4, #5
Direct Competition: Collegiate, 11-7 (@Circle, 3-15); Mulvane, 11-7 (@Buhler, 4-14)
A Winfield Win: Would be a solid victory, but would not guarantee anything. Winfield split the season series with Mulvane and did not play Collegiate, so if it ties either of the teams then a coin flip would be needed as tiebreaker. The Vikings would obviously finish ahead if either/both Mulvane and Collegiate lose.
A Winfield Loss: Would feature the same scenarios as the ones presented above. Pretty much if it loses, it will drop below the teams that win. And if it ties with either or both Mulvane and Collegiate, a coin flip will be needed as tiebreaker.
How I See It: Winfield has by far the most difficult road game among the three teams and I think El Dorado will be able to defend its home court tonight. That means the Vikings will drop to the #5 seed and likely play Collegiate in the first round of sub-state at their place. It's probably the worst spot in the bracket, on the same side as Collegiate and Clearwater, but the Vikings have shown the ability to compete with teams like that and could still be competitive.
ANDALE INDIANS
Record: 16-2
Tuesday: vs. Clearwater, 14-4
Possible Seeds: #1
Direct Competition: None
An Andale Win: Would win the league title outright, but would mean nothing for sub-state seeding.
An Andale Loss: Would be a disappointment, but would mean nothing for sub-state seeding.
How I See It: Andale has proven it can play with some of the best in Class 4A, taking McPherson into overtime in the Roundhouse. It's been nothing but an impressive season after that head-scratching season-opening loss to Winfield at home. Since then, Andale has proven its among the elite of 4A and I think it will take care of Clearwater and Collegiate the next two games. Frankly, I don't see a team in this sub-state that can compete with Andale. The Indians will be the overwhelming favorite to advance from this bracket.
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