Entering the final week of the regular season, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at sub-state seeding. A lot of outlets focus on league standings and races, but there's not very much information out there concerning sub-state seeds. I want this to be the place for you and I will detail every possible scenario for each team. Without further ado, let's jump in with the second 6A Regional in Maize.
I will start with my power ranking of the sub-state. I throw out the records and consider the quality of schedule and victories each team possess and then rank them by how dangerous I think each team is. For the Junction City sub-state my power rankings are the following: 1. Maize, 2. North, 3. Garden City, 4. Hutchinson, 5. South, 6. Dodge City, 7. Northwest, 8. Campus.
Now onto the local teams and their scenarios moving forward.
CAMPUS (1-17)
Remaining schedule: vs. Salina South on Tuesday; @Andover on Thursday.
Possible seeds: #8 (LOCKED)
Possible 1st round opponent: @Maize (LOCKED)
Scenarios: Not a lot of scenarios to play out here, as Campus already knows that it will have to travel to the best team in the sub-state's home court in its first round game. The Colts were blown out in Maize the first time around, but did play the Eagles tough at home a few weeks ago in a 48-33 loss.
Breakdown: For Campus, the #8 seed was decided some time ago. The records have to be thrown out the window for this team and it has to embrace the David vs. Goliath narrative that they find themselves in. While Campus hasn't had a breakthrough in terms of winning a game, it has been much more competitive in games late in the season and has avoided the 30 and 40 point blowouts that they were prone to earlier in the season. That's not much to go on, but it's something. I would suspect Campus will try to slow the tempo down against Maize and turn it into a halfcourt affair. It's a long shot, but Campus has to believe in something.
HUTCHINSON (9-9)
Remaining schedule: vs. Newton on Tuesday; @Salina Central on Friday.
Possible seeds: #2, #3, #4, #5, #6
Possible 1st round opponent: vs. Northwest, Dodge City, South, North; @Dodge City, South, North
Scenarios: If Hutchinson wins both games, it would likely secure the #3 seed. If it splits, it would likely be a coin toss for the #3 and #4 seed. If it loses both, Hutchinson would likely fall to a coin flip for the #4, #5 or #6 seed. That obviously leaves a lot of possibilities, but Hutchinson's first-round opponent is likely going to be one from Wichita South, Wichita North or Dodge City.
Breakdown: I think Hutchinson picks up a win at home and a loss on the road, which puts them at 10-10 for the season. It's looking likely North will also finish 10-10 with South and Dodge City dropping games. So Hutch would be in a coin flip with North for the #3 and #4 seed, which means it would host a first-round game against either Wichita South or Dodge City. If Hutch gets the #3 seed, that means a road trip to Garden City for its ticket to state. If Hutch gets the #4 seed, that means a road trip to Maize for its ticket to state. Either way, Hutch would be the underdog going into the game but its style of play gives it a chance against any team in this sub-state. If Hutch can get that #3 seed, a home game against Dodge City and a road trip to Garden City is about the easiest possible way to get to state in 6A. Regardless, this has been a terrific season for the Salt Hawks.
MAIZE (14-3)
Remaining schedule: vs. Newton on Monday; vs. Salina Central on Tuesday; @Newton on Friday.
Possible seeds: #1 (LOCKED)
Possible 1st round opponent: vs. Campus (LOCKED)
Scenarios: Not much to discuss here. Maize is already secured as the #1 seed and will host Campus in the first round, not to mention a home date with a trip to state on the line.
Breakdown: I'll assume that Maize is able to slide by Campus in the first round, which puts them in the sub-state finals on its home court against a host of possible opponents. It could any of the following: Hutchinson, Wichita North, Wichita South, or Dodge City. Obviously the Eagles would like to avoid the Redskins, as they have proven this season they are an incredibly streaky team capable of knocking off great teams. A home game against Hutch, South and Dodge City would all be very manageable for this Maize team, which could potentially enter the 6A state tournament with a very favorable 19-3 record. This is by far the weakest sub-state in 6A, so Maize will be the heavy favorite to advance out of it being by far the class of the eight teams. But watch out for that potential North showdown, no team is going to want to face them in sub-state.
WICHITA NORTH (9-10)
Remaining schedule: @Wichita West on Thursday.
Possible seeds: #3, #4, #5, #6
Possible 1st round opponent: vs. Dodge City, Hutchinson, or Wichita South; @Dodge City, Hutchinson, or Wichita South
Scenarios: Regardless of the outcome against West, North's seeding is reliant on the three other teams it is going up against in Dodge City, Hutchinson, and Wichita South than anything else. But assume North wins, it would likely secure a Top-4 seed because it's looking like South and Dodge City will take a loss in the final week. If Hutchinson splits, then it would be a coin toss for the #3 and #4 seed. If Hutchinson loses to Newton and Salina Central, then North would gain the #3 seed outright.
Breakdown: The most likely scenario has North finishing in a tie with Hutchinson at 10-10, but neither of Hutch's games are gimme's and it's possible the Redskins could be the #3 seed outright. Either way, it's good news for North because that means a first-round home game against South or Dodge City. This team has proven to be bipolar, so neither of those opponents would be automatic victories for the Redskins. And even if they do win, North will have to go on the road - to Maize if they get #4, to Garden City if they get #3 - for its ticket to get into the state tournament. Still, with how up and down this season has been, I don't think North can complain about how this bracket is shaping up for itself. I still think the Redskins are the second-best team in this sub-state and definitely capable of beating any of the other seven teams. Then again, it's probably capable of losing to any of the seven, as well.
WICHITA NORTHWEST (5-13)
Remaining schedule: vs. Kapaun Mt. Carmel on Tuesday; @Bishop Carroll on Thursday.
Possible seeds: #7 (LOCKED)
Possible 1st round opponent: @Garden City or @Hutchinson
Scenarios: Northwest is already locked into the 7 seed, so there's nothing to talk about there. And I don't see Garden City losing its final game and Hutchinson winning out, so it's looking like the Grizzlies are taking the 3-hour bus trip to Garden City for their first-round game.
Breakdown: It's been a trying season for Northwest, as it has had an assistant coach resign under complaints of verbal abuse and head coach Chris Collins announced to the team mid-season that he would be stepping down at the conclusion. This team has a choice of either banding together and trying to make some noise before they go down, or just go down quietly. Garden City is not an unbeatable opponent and Northwest has the potential to win a game like that, but does it have the will?
WICHITA SOUTH (9-10)
Remaining schedule: vs. Wichita East on Tuesday.
Possible seeds: #3, #4, #5, #6
Possible 1st round opponent: vs. Dodge City, Hutchinson, or Wichita South; @Dodge City, Hutchinson, or Wichita South
Scenarios: See North's blurb above, as the same things apply.
Breakdown: Chances are the Titans are taking a loss in the final game of the season against the City League champs, so let's assume South finishes 9-11. North is likely winning its last game and Hutch has a good chance at picking up its 10th win, as well. I think Dodge City splits, which would put it at 9-11 right with South. So it's looking likely those two teams will be in a coin flip to determine the #5 and #6 seeds. It's looking like a road trip either way for South, a team that made significant strides in its first year under coach Gunter, in the first round against either Hutchinson or Wichita North. Either one of those is a winnable game, as South has already knocked off North this season, and Hutch would be a favorable match-up. If South gets past that, a road trip to Maize (if its #5) or Garden City (if its #6) would be its ticket to state. In the easiest sub-state in 6A, you can't complain about that road to state.
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