Entering the final week of the regular season, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at sub-state seeding. A lot of outlets focus on league standings and races, but there's not very much information out there concerning sub-state seeds. I want this to be the place for you and I will detail every possible scenario for each team. Without further ado, let's jump in with the first 6A Regional in Junction City.
I will start with my power ranking of the sub-state. I throw out the records and consider the quality of schedule and victories each team possess and then rank them by how dangerous I think each team is. For the Junction City sub-state my power rankings are the following: 1. Wichita East, 2. Lawrence Free State, 3. Wichita Southeast, 4. Derby, 5. Manhattan, 6. Topeka, 7. Junction City, 8. Washburn Rural.
Now onto the local teams and their scenarios moving forward.
DERBY (14-5)
Remaining schedule: vs. Salina South on Friday.
Possible seeds: #2 or #3
Possible 1st round opponent: vs. Topeka or vs. Junction City
Scenarios: If Derby wins at home against Salina South, it would then be carefully paying attention to Southeast's rigorous schedule of taking on the two best teams in the City League this week in Heights and East. If Southeast loses both, Derby gets #2. If Southeast splits, it's a coin flip for #2. If Southeast wins both, Derby is #3. Either way, Derby is looking at a winnable first-round game at home against either Topeka or Junction City. Next up would likely be Southeast for a trip to state on the line.
Breakdown: You have to figure the Panthers take care of business at home this week, and I think it's a likely possibility Southeast drops at least one game this week. It's possible a coin flip will determine the #2 seed, but it's even more possible Derby wins the the #2 seed outright. That would huge. The Panthers would avoid a capable team in Topeka (10-8), instead getting Junction City (5-13) in the first round, as well as being able to host the sub-state final game if they do win. If I tell you that Derby is hosting a sub-state final game in this sub-state before the season started, I guarantee you that coach Brett Flory would take that in a heartbeat. This has been an overachieving team that appears to be playing its best down the stretch. Throw in that Derby could be playing at home and that might make the Panthers the favorite to advance through this side of the bracket.
WICHITA EAST (17-1)
Remaining schedule: @Wichita South on Tuesday; @Wichita Southeast on Thursday.
Possible seeds: #1 (LOCKED)
Possible 1st round opponent: vs. Washburn Rural (LOCKED)
Scenarios: As far as sub-state seeding goes, East has already guaranteed itself the No. 1 seed. But sweeping these final two games remain important because East currently owns the best record in Class 6A, which means if it gets to the state tournament than it would also have the No. 1 seed there and that's invaluable. But as far as the match-up goes, East is locked in against Washburn Rural at home. If the Blue Aces were to win, their ticket to the state tournament would be a home game against the winner of the 4-5 match-up, which is likely going to be Manhattan and Lawrence Free State.
Breakdown: I don't think East will have much of an issue disposing of WaRu at home, but that next game could be tricky. Manhattan and Free State are both quality teams, good enough to be at state, so this is no cake walk for East. Free State would especially be a difficult match-up, as it is coming off a 3-point win on the road against one of the 5 best teams in the state in Olathe East. As I stated above in my power rankings, I believe Free State is the second best team in this pod so it's looking like a tough draw for the Blue Aces. Both of those teams deserve a bid to the state tournament.
WICHITA SOUTHEAST (14-4)
Remaining schedule: @Wichita Heights on Tuesday; vs. Wichita East on Thursday.
Possible seeds: #2 or #3
Possible 1st round opponent: vs. Topeka or vs. Junction City
Scenarios: Sweep both games this week and the Buffaloes lock down the #2 seed and play Junction City at home in the first round. Split them and Southeast likely ties Derby with a 15-5 record and a coin flip would determine who gets the No. 2 seed and potential home game in the sub-state final. Lose both and Southeast likely falls to No. 3 and plays Topeka at home with a likely road trip to Derby being the ticket to state.
Breakdown: This is actually the easier side of the bracket to make it to state, in my opinion. According to my power rankings, the #3, #4, #6 and #7 teams will be on this side of the bracket. This is a huge week for Southeast, as it needs two wins to secure the #2 seed a home-court advantage throughout. I think sweeping the Heights-East swing is just too difficult in three days, so if Southeast only gets one that means a likely tie with Derby a coin flip for who gets that all-important #2 seed with the home-court advantage in the finals. It's looking destined for a Southeast-Derby game for a trip to state on the line, all that's left to be decided is where it's going to be played. I would give the slight edge to the Buffaloes in that game, regardless of the location, however.
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